Political tension in Latin America has reached a new level. The Donald Trump administration has issued a direct ultimatum against Nicolás Maduro, accompanied by a military deployment reminiscent of the strategy used by the United States after the September 11, 2001, attacks against Osama Bin Laden. The information was revealed by analyst Carlos Rucau, who asserted that the current situation places the Venezuelan regime facing its greatest challenge in years: the possibility of a direct military takeover.
A parallel with the Bin Laden case
According to Rucau, Washington’s strategy is based on the same legal framework it used to justify the operation against Bin Laden in Pakistan. In this case, Maduro is not only being treated as a questionable president, but as a danger to U.S. national security , accused of terrorism and of leading the Cartel of the Suns , a drug trafficking organization considered one of the most influential in the region.
With this legal argument, Trump has the possibility of ordering Maduro’s arrest, extraction, or even assassination under the guise of a “narco-terrorist.” The operation would be based on the official recognition Washington granted to Edmundo González Urrutia as the legitimate president of Venezuela, following the disputed elections in which María Corina Machado was disqualified from participating.
The military deployment is already underway
According to reports, six U.S. warships, along with two missile-capable submarines, are already in waters near Guyana and the Caribbean. This naval offensive is complemented by squadrons of F-35 aircraft in Puerto Rico and Bonaire, prepared to ensure air control in the event of an intervention.
In addition, the presence of Black Hawk helicopters and Navy SEAL- type special forces , the same unit that carried out the operation against Bin Laden, was confirmed. These commandos would be tasked with entering Venezuelan territory to carry out the executive order signed by Trump.
The deployment is not symbolic: mobilizing six destroyers, hundreds of marines, and state-of-the-art aircraft entails a multi-million-dollar expenditure that, according to analysts, the United States would not undertake without a specific objective.
Possible scenarios for Nicolás Maduro
There are several paths that could define the Venezuelan president’s immediate future:
- Military resistance: Although some sectors of the military continue to support Maduro, internal fractures and doubts about the military’s ability to sustain a defense against an attack of this magnitude are reported.
- Political exile: Unconfirmed reports indicate that Maduro is considering a trip to Cuba, a country that has historically supported his government.
- Capture or destruction: the most radical option, which would depend on the final decision of the White House and the reaction of Venezuelan forces on the ground.
Latin America’s position
International reaction is key. Countries like Brazil and Colombia , which were once allies of Chavismo, have distanced themselves. President Gustavo Petro expressed doubts about Venezuela’s ties to drug trafficking in Colombia, while Brazil declared that it never recognized Maduro as the legitimate president.
Guyana, for its part, has become a strategic player thanks to its military alliance with the United States, especially following Maduro’s territorial claims to the Essequibo region.
In Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaum’s new administration has shown some openness to Trump’s demands, especially on security and migration issues, which could further weaken regional support for Caracas.
China and Russia: Maduro’s uncomfortable allies
Despite diplomatic support from Russia and China, analysts point out that this backing would not be unconditional. In Beijing’s case, its true interest lies in securing oil contracts, not Maduro’s personal hold on power. Russia, on the other hand, maintains a military presence in Venezuela through groups like Wagner , which have collaborated on the president’s security.
However, the scheduled meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in South Korea could redefine the geopolitical landscape, leaving Maduro in an even more fragile position.
What role does the UN play?
The question of a possible UN response to a military intervention is inevitable. However, as Rucau explained, the Security Council lacks real power when a veto-wielding superpower, like the United States, takes the initiative. This limits the international body’s ability to stop a military operation of this magnitude.
Are we facing the end of Chavismo?
Maduro’s possible departure would not only mean the end of his term, but also the dissolution of a political model that for more than two decades has sustained power thanks to oil and regional alliances.
If the intervention is confirmed, Edmundo González Urrutia would assume the internationally recognized presidency , accompanied by María Corina Machado as a key opposition leader. The parallel with the fall of Manuel Noriega in Panama is inevitable: a dictator accused of drug trafficking captured by the United States and replaced by an elected president.
What you should know about the current crisis in Venezuela
- Trump’s ultimatum puts Maduro in the same category as international terrorist leaders.
- The military operation is already underway , with ships, submarines and aircraft surrounding Venezuela.
- Guyana, Colombia, and Brazil have distanced themselves from the Chavista regime, weakening its regional support.
- China and Russia may not intervene directly, prioritizing their economic interests.
- Venezuela’s immediate future will depend on internal resistance and the final decision of the United States.
The outlook is uncertain, but what seems clear is that Maduro’s time in power faces a countdown. The combination of international pressure, internal divisions, and the US military deployment leaves the Venezuelan regime in an extremely vulnerable position.
The region and the world are watching with bated breath. In a matter of days or weeks, not only Nicolás Maduro’s fate could be decided, but also the political direction of Venezuela and the balance of power in Latin America.
👉 Stay informed and stay tuned for upcoming updates: the outcome could be much closer than it seems.
